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Aeroflot - Strategic Analysis and Outlook Report (2026)
AviationOutlook
December 20, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Russia’s flagship carrier, Aeroflot, faces a complex operating environment as it moves into 2026, balancing financial recovery with fleet challenges, route optimization, and international sanctions.
Table of Contents
Operational Performance Demonstrates Strength Amid Market Contraction
Aeroflot Group’s operational results through November 2025 reveal an airline maintaining efficiency despite market headwinds.
The carrier achieved a passenger load factor of 92.8% in November 2025, representing a 3.1 percentage point increase year-on-year. Domestic segments reached 93.3% while international operations achieved 92.2%, demonstrating strong demand management across both market categories.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation projects total Russian passenger traffic at approximately 109.6 million for 2025, down 1.9% from 111.7 million in 2024.
This modest decline affects all carriers operating in the Russian market, yet Aeroflot has managed to maintain its competitive position through disciplined capacity management and route optimization.
AEROFLOT GROUP TRAFFIC METRICS (2025)
November 2025 Performance:
- Total Passengers: 4.1 million (+2.8% YoY)
- Load Factor: 92.8% (+3.1pp YoY)
- Domestic Load Factor: 93.3%
- International Load Factor: 92.2%
October 2025 Performance:
- Total Passengers Carried: 47.2 million (Jan-Oct)
- Domestic Traffic: 36.1 million passengers
- International Traffic: 11.1 million passengers
- Overall Load Factor: 90.1%
Financial Recovery Continues Despite Cost Pressures
Aeroflot’s financial performance during the first half of 2025 showcases meaningful revenue growth. The carrier reported a 10% increase in consolidated revenue to 414.8 billion rubles, supported by a 2% improvement in operational results. The group transported 25.9 million passengers from January through June, with revenue from scheduled passenger traffic increasing 11.3% to 388.6 billion rubles.
Net profit reached 74.3 billion rubles for the six-month period, compared to 42.3 billion rubles during the same period in 2024. However, when adjusted for currency revaluation effects and one-off factors, the adjusted net profit stood at 4.3 billion rubles, significantly lower than the 27 billion rubles adjusted profit recorded in the first half of 2024.
This divergence highlights the impact of non-operational factors on the carrier’s bottom line.
Cost inflation presents ongoing challenges.
Average fares increased approximately 6% during the first half of 2025, yet CEO Sergey Alexandrovsky noted that cost inflation outpaces fare growth. Rising expenses for aviation kerosene, maintenance services, and airport operations continue to compress margins.
Infrastructure modernization at Russian airports has led to multiple increases in handling and service fees, directly impacting profitability on price-sensitive short and medium-haul routes.
Sanctions Impact and Fleet Management Strategies
Western sanctions imposed following geopolitical tensions continue to shape Aeroflot’s operational reality.
The carrier operates a mixed fleet of Western-manufactured aircraft, including Boeing 777s, Airbus A330s, A350s, and Boeing 737s, alongside Russian-manufactured types. Access to spare parts and maintenance support for Western aircraft remains restricted, forcing the airline to pursue alternative sourcing channels and creative maintenance solutions.
Intelligence estimates suggest that Russia’s commercial aviation fleet could shrink by more than 50% by 2026 if sanctions continue at current levels.
Aeroflot has responded by dismantling eight Boeing cargo aircraft to harvest spare parts for passenger operations, demonstrating the pragmatic approach required to maintain airworthiness across its Western-built fleet.
FLEET COMPOSITION CHALLENGES
Current Western Aircraft:
- Boeing 777-300ER: Long-haul backbone
- Airbus A350 XWB: Premium international routes
- Airbus A330: Medium/long-haul operations
- Boeing 737: Domestic and regional services
- Airbus A320 family: Short to medium-haul
Key Constraints:
- Limited spare parts availability
- Restricted maintenance support
- Parts cannibalization from cargo aircraft
- Reliance on grey market supply chains
Domestic Fleet Development Becomes Central Priority
Fleet modernization through Russian-manufactured aircraft represents Aeroflot’s most significant strategic initiative for 2026 and beyond.
The carrier has committed to acquiring more than 100 MC-21-310 aircraft by 2030, holding firm orders for 18 airframes plus options for 90 additional units. Aeroflot remains the only airline with signed firm contracts for the MC-21, positioning it as the launch customer for Russia’s most advanced commercial aircraft program.
The MC-21-310 program features fully domestic PD-14 engines, eliminating dependence on Western propulsion systems. Initial deliveries are scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026, with CEO Alexandrovsky stating readiness to sign additional contracts to expand the program. The airline views this transition as fundamental to long-term sustainability and operational independence.
However, Aeroflot has scaled back its total Russian aircraft order from 200 to 108 aircraft by 2030, citing production capacity constraints and economic considerations. The carrier has rejected further expansion of its Sukhoi Superjet 100 fleet, focusing resources on the more capable MC-21 platform.
This pragmatic approach reflects a realistic assessment of domestic production capabilities while maintaining commitment to fleet indigenization.
Route Network Evolution Balances Domestic and International Growth
Aeroflot operated 292 routes during the summer of 2025, including 158 domestic destinations. The network expansion represented an 8% increase compared to the previous year, with 105 routes operating from Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport and 160 routes bypassing the capital.
Domestic services account for over 70% of total traffic, with southern routes traditionally representing up to one-quarter of passenger flows during peak seasons. Yet CEO Alexandrovsky has identified significant efficiency opportunities through route optimization.
Many southbound flights currently operate with excess block time due to non-optimized routing, undermining operational efficiency and increasing costs. Proposals to straighten air corridors could substantially improve aircraft utilization and reduce operating expenses.
International operations show steady recovery despite restricted access to Western markets.
Foreign carriers are projected to carry 23-24 million passengers on routes to and from Russia in 2025, a record level that intensifies competitive pressure on domestic operators. Aeroflot has responded by expanding services to Asian and Middle Eastern markets, with plans to launch new routes connecting Moscow to additional destinations across these regions in 2026.
ROUTE NETWORK COMPOSITION (2025)
Total Routes: 292
- Domestic Routes: 158
- International Routes: 134
- Moscow Sheremetyevo Hub: 105 routes
- Non-Moscow Routes: 160 routes
Top Domestic Destinations:
- St. Petersburg
- Sochi
- Kaliningrad
- Far Eastern cities (subsidized routes)
International Focus Areas:
- Turkey (7 daily Istanbul flights from summer 2025)
- UAE (Dubai connections)
- Thailand, Indonesia, Maldives
- Sri Lanka (seasonal Colombo service)
- Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City resumption)
Competitive Challenges Intensify Across All Segments
The competitive environment facing Aeroflot has grown more challenging throughout 2025. Foreign carriers operating to Russia have captured substantial market share, with their presence representing what CEO Alexandrovsky characterizes as “significant pressure not only on the Aeroflot Group but on Russian commercial aviation as a whole.”
This external competition forces the airline to pursue domestic efficiencies, optimize fleet deployment, and contain costs while maintaining service quality standards.
The carrier’s strategy rests on three interconnected pillars: route network rationalization to eliminate unprofitable operations, aggressive cost control across all expense categories, and fleet renewal to reduce unit costs through improved fuel and operational efficiency.
Outlook for 2026: Cautious Optimism Tempered by Realism
As Aeroflot approaches 2026, the carrier faces a transitional period that will define its competitive position for the remainder of the decade. The arrival of the first MC-21 aircraft in late 2026 marks a pivotal milestone, beginning the gradual transformation toward operational independence from Western supply chains.
However, the transition will unfold slowly, with meaningful fleet composition changes requiring years rather than months.
Financial performance is expected to remain under pressure as cost inflation continues to outpace revenue growth. The airline’s ability to maintain profitability will depend on disciplined capacity management, successful route optimization initiatives, and continued improvement in load factors. Government support for domestic aircraft manufacturing and potential infrastructure fee relief could provide additional margin support.
The carrier’s leadership has demonstrated pragmatic flexibility in navigating unprecedented operating conditions. Maintaining this approach while executing on fleet transition plans, route network optimization, and cost containment will determine whether Aeroflot can sustain its position as Russia’s premier airline through the challenging period ahead.
The fundamentals remain solid with strong load factors and recovering demand, yet external factors including sanctions, competition, and cost inflation present ongoing headwinds that require continuous strategic adaptation.
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