Can Trump Secure 600 Aircraft China Mega-Deal for Boeing During Trump-Xi Summit?
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Let’s analyze today’s topic in detail.
Aviation stakeholders around the world have circled May 14 and 15, 2026 on their calendars.
President Donald Trump just touched down in Beijing for a two-day state summit with President Xi Jinping.
And sitting somewhere in the official delegation is a man whose company has been frozen out of the world’s second-largest aviation market for nearly a decade: Boeing Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg.
The reason for his presence is no secret.
A potential order for as many as 500 narrowbody jets, plus a possible widebody tranche of around 100 aircraft, is reportedly on the table.
If announced in Beijing, it would rank among the largest commercial aircraft deals in industry history.
Quick brief
- Summit dates: May 14 to 15, 2026 (Beijing)
- Boeing delegate: CEO Kelly Ortberg
- Reported package: up to 500 narrowbody (737 MAX) + ~100 widebody
- Last major China-Boeing order: 300 jets, November 2017
- China’s 20-year demand: 9,755 new airplanes (Boeing CMO 2025-2044)Let’s analyze everything in detail.
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Why This Summit Matters?
This Beijing summit is significant beyond geopolitics.
China has not placed a major direct order with Boeing since November 2017, when China Aviation Supplies Holding Co. signed a 300-aircraft commitment worth roughly $37 billion during Trump’s first state visit.
That long absence is unusual.
China is forecast to become the world’s largest aviation market within the next two decades, and Boeing’s own 2025-2044 outlook expects China’s commercial fleet to grow to 9,755 airplanes over twenty years.
The combination of a rebuilding manufacturer, a fleet-hungry Chinese airline sector, and a politically motivated US administration eager for a trade win has set up a rare alignment.
It could well be Boeing’s most strategically important commercial moment since the 737 MAX was recertified.
Why the timing aligns
- Chinese carriers face widebody and narrowbody shortages after years of paused deliveries
- Boeing needs visible, high-volume orders to firm up the 737 MAX backlog
- Washington needs a tangible commercial deliverable from the summitA Frozen Decade in the World’s Most Important Aviation Market
Boeing’s China order drought began in earnest after the two 737 MAX accidents in 2018 and 2019, when Chinese regulators became the first to ground the type and among the last to permit its return.
The drought then deepened with the US-China trade conflict, the COVID disruption to international travel, and a brief but damaging delivery halt in April 2025 amid escalating tariffs.
That April 2025 halt put a fine point on the problem.
Chinese carriers were instructed not to accept new Boeing handovers after Washington imposed 145% tariffs on certain Chinese goods.
Deliveries only resumed in June 2025 after tariff tensions eased.
By the time deliveries restarted, Boeing’s relationship with Chinese carriers was thin.
The company had been positioning roughly 50 new MAX aircraft for Chinese customers through the remainder of 2025, but those were largely placeholders rather than fresh orders.
The lost decade at a glance
2017: 300-jet China commitment under Trump 1.0
2018-2019: Two MAX crashes, global grounding
2020-2022: COVID collapses international travel
2023-2024: China leans toward Airbus and accelerates COMAC's C919
April 2025: China pauses Boeing deliveries amid tariffs
June 2025: Deliveries quietly resume
May 2026: Ortberg joins Trump in BeijingOrtberg’s Posture Heading Into Beijing
Kelly Ortberg has spent the better part of a year telegraphing both confidence and humility about the China file.
On Boeing’s Q1 2026 earnings call, he framed the company’s outlook as cautiously optimistic, telling investors he was eyeing a “big number” from China but stressing that any breakthrough was tied to the political relationship.
His message has been consistent.
In April 2026, ahead of the summit announcement, he stated bluntly that “Trump is key” to closing a major plane order from Chinese airlines.
That framing matters because it shifts the deal’s center of gravity.
Ortberg is not selling aircraft into China the way a normal CEO might. He is accompanying a state visit where the order is, in effect, a diplomatic gesture endorsed by both leaderships.
What Ortberg has signaled
- Open to flexible deal structures (mix of new orders + reactivations)
- Believes the political channel is the unlock, not technical or commercial terms
- Comfortable acknowledging the deal is "dependent on Xi Jinping"