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Key Takeaways
Ryanair puts its FY28 fuel bill roughly €2bn higher, and a fare rise near 20% would be needed to cover it.
A pay freeze from April 2027 is worth an estimated €50m to €95m, under 5% of that gap.
Airport charges are the larger lever, with each 5% cut worth about €93m.
Cabin crew numbers have a legal floor of one per 50 seats, so crewing savings must come from rostering.
The first 16 Boeing MAX 10 aircraft cover about 2.5% of the fleet, so new-aircraft fuel relief stays small in FY28.
Airports, unions and rival carriers face a negotiation window that opens in spring 2027.
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What Ryanair Put on the Table
On 2 November, Ryanair reported a 15% profit decline to €2.15bn for the half year. Traffic rose 6% to 125.8m passengers while average fares fell 4%.
Management then turned to FY28. Fuel is 80% hedged at $67 a barrel to March 2027, but 25% at $95 a barrel is all the cover in place for the following twelve months.
The response is a cost review covering airport charge talks, maturing labour agreements that may need temporary pay freezes, lower crewing ratios and wider AI use in back-office work.
H1 FY27 snapshot (six months to 30 September 2026)
Profit after tax: €2.15bn, down 15%
Traffic: 125.8m passengers, up 6%
Average fare: €55.70, down 4%
Operating costs: €7.69bn, up 10%
Unhedged jet fuel: about $130 a barrel against $67 hedgedThe Fuel Gap Expressed in Fares
Ryanair estimates a 33% jump in its fuel bill for the year to March 2028, worth about €2bn. That implies a current-year fuel bill near €6bn.
Spread across roughly 220m planned passengers, the extra cost is about €9 per passenger.
O’Leary said a 20% fare increase would cover the gap and was unsure Ryanair would reach it. That figure implies a fare base near €10bn, and on the H1 average fare it equals about €11 per passenger.
Fare scenarios at constant volumes
10% fare rise: covers €1.0bn, leaves a €1.0bn gap
15% fare rise: covers €1.5bn, leaves a €0.5bn gap
20% fare rise: covers €2.0bn, leaves no gap
Demand evidence is mixed. Fares fell 2% in Q2, though Q3 is trending modestly ahead of last year.
Supply is tightening. easyJet is removing up to 1.4 million seats from winter, about 3% of its usual capacity, and Ryanair expects European winter capacity to fall by low to mid single digits.
Fuel is forecast to take 31.4% of operating costs across the industry in 2026, up from 25.4%.
Every carrier has the same reason to push fares up.
Why the Pay Freeze Moves the Numbers Less Than Expected
Staff costs rose 3% to €476m in Q1. On 61.3m passengers that’s €7.77 each, or about €1.7bn at 220m passengers, while annualising Q1 gives €1.9bn.
A frozen raise of 3% to 5% is therefore worth €50m to €95m.
Staff cost base, FY28 estimate: €1.7bn to €1.9bn
Foregone 3% raise: €51m to €57m
Foregone 5% raise: €85m to €95m
Share of the €2bn fuel gap: about 2.5% to 4.8%
The extra €2bn alone exceeds