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Today’s post is part of a new experimental series. Here, I conduct a thorough breakdown & analysis of top aviation industry updates for the week. Do you like it?
I will “continue or discontinue” this series based on the majority vote.
So, please cast your vote.
Included today:
FAA Pauses the 737 MAX 10 Certification and Puts 2027 Fleet Plans on a Software Clock
Qatar Airways Parks the A330 for Good
Alaska Turns 46% of Its 787 Seats Premium and Bets 2028 on the MAX 10
Airbus A321neo Coating Flaw Turns a Supplier Tier Into a Delivery Risk
Ryanair Backs a Short MAX 10 Delay and Its 2027 Capacity Plan Depends on It
Alaska’s Bid to Join American’s Global Joint Businesses Gives Seattle a Partner Network
Boeing Locks Both US Sixth-Generation Fighters and Reshapes the Defense Supply Chain
The A350F’s First Flight Starts a Race Against Boeing’s 777-8F Timeline
Midway Atoll’s Runway Decision Could Add 2,200 kg of Fuel to Qantas Project Sunrise
JAL’s Regional Jet Pick Could Hand Embraer Both of Japan’s Big Airline Groups
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1. FAA Pauses the 737 MAX 10 Certification and Puts 2027 Fleet Plans on a Software Clock
The FAA will delay MAX 10 certification until it’s satisfied that a flight management computer glitch poses no safety problem. Administrator Bryan Bedford offered no timeline.
Boeing had reportedly already informed operators about it in August, and the approval that airlines expected in October now has no date.
Sept 16: Boeing CEO says MAX 10 approval is coming very soon
Sept 26: The software issue becomes public
Sept 28: FAA says the MAX 10 certification waits
Why the FAA Is Waiting
The defect sits in versions 14 and 14.1 of the flight management computer software, supplied by GE Aerospace. After a go-around, the vertical navigation mode can disconnect if the crew changes the programmed route.
Pilots keep control, and the autopilot stays available in basic modes such as level change and vertical speed. The FAA is examining the workload component during a low and demanding phase of flight.
Bedford also said an earlier bug fix introduced the new problem, and that GE may speed up a correction because of the attention. A Corrective Action Review Board will decide whether the issue is a safety of flight concern, and it will not meet before next week.
Affected software: FMC versions 14 and 14.1
Symptom: VNAV can drop after a go-around route change
Fallback: level change and vertical speed remain available
FAA test: does the added workload create a safety risk
The MAX 7 was certified in August with version 14.
The MAX 10 flew 976 flights and more than 2,060 hours of certification testing on version 14.1.
United and Southwest will not accept deliveries carrying the affected versions.
Scenario Math for Fleet Planners
Global airlines have ordered about 1,500 MAX 10s. That equals roughly 31% of the 4,778 aircraft in the MAX backlog.
Ryanair and Alaska both expect first deliveries in spring 2027, and Ryanair earlier said Boeing was targeting certification around mid-October. Counting spring (March through May), the cushion between a mid-October approval and first deliveries runs from about 4.5 to 7.5 months.
That cushion absorbs a short delay and disappears in a long one.
Scenario A: approval by mid-November (about 1 month late)
Cushion left: 3.5 to 6.5 months
Scenario B: approval by mid-January (3 months late)
Cushion left: 1.5 to 4.5 months
Scenario C: approval by mid-April (6 months late)
Cushion left: none for March, about 1.5 months for May
Order book exposure: about 1,500 MAX 10s of a 4,778 MAX backlog (31%)
Earliest customers at risk: Ryanair (first 15) and Alaska (spring 2027)
Labor adds a second risk, because a potential engineer strike from October 6 could slow certification work.
Boeing is preparing a procedure so pilots can re-enable automated VNAV and is working on a permanent update.
Operators should confirm the software version on every aircraft in their delivery stream.
Boeing has not said whether a corrected release will require additional flight testing.
Customers with both MAX 7 and MAX 10 orders should expect the same software question to apply to each type, since the affected versions span both.
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Bottom Line
Certification timing now depends on an FAA board review and a software correction, and neither has a date. Fleet planners should treat spring 2027 MAX 10 deliveries as exposed to schedule risk while keeping MAX 8 and MAX 9 capacity options open.
Customers with the earliest slots carry the most exposure, and the cushion shrinks with every month of delay.
BOTTOM LINE AT A GLANCE
Status: certification paused, no date given
Trigger: FMC software 14 and 14.1 (VNAV drop after go-around)
Next gate: FAA Corrective Action Review Board, not before next week
Planning rule: treat 2027 MAX 10 deliveries as schedule-exposed
WATCH LIST
1. Review board date and outcome
2. GE corrected software release
3. Engineer union strike deadline (October 6)