SunExpress - Strategic Analysis and Outlook Report (2026)

The Turkish-German leisure carrier has transformed into a formidable competitor in the Europe-Turkey corridor.

With record revenues hitting €2.2 billion in 2024 and an 85-aircraft fleet serving 237 routes, the joint venture between Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa is executing an expansion strategy that signals ambitious growth through 2026 and beyond.

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Table of Contents

• Financial Performance Signals Robust Health

• Load Factor Excellence Demonstrates Operational Ma …

• Fleet Modernization Anchors Future Growth

• Network Strategy: UK and Ireland Drive Growth

• Strategic Partnerships Expand Competitive Reach

• Ownership Structure Remains Stable

• Market Context: Turkey Tourism Momentum

• Operational Challenges and Mitigation Strategies

• My Final Thoughts

Financial Performance Signals Robust Health

SunExpress reported a 23% year-on-year revenue increase for 2024, reaching €2.2 billion while carrying 15 million passengers. The carrier has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for 16.8 million passengers.

More importantly, the airline generated $164 million in net profit in 2024, demonstrating operational efficiency that sets it apart from many European leisure carriers struggling with thin margins.

The summer 2025 season reinforced this positive trajectory. The airline carried more than 13 million passengersthrough October 2025, marking an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Load Factor Excellence Demonstrates Operational Mastery

The airline’s 85% load factor through the 2025 summer season positions it competitively within industry standards. For airlines, load factors above 80% typically indicate healthy demand and efficient capacity management. SunExpress has consistently maintained load factors in the 85-88% range over recent years, demonstrating its ability to match capacity with demand.

This performance becomes more impressive when considering the airline added 15 new international routes during the 2025 summer season. New route launches typically experience lower initial load factors as the market develops, yet SunExpress maintained strong overall performance.

Fleet Modernization Anchors Future Growth

SunExpress has committed to a fleet transformation centered on the Boeing 737 MAX family. The airline received three Boeing 737-8 aircraft during 2025, with two additional units expected by year’s end. Most significantly, four more Boeing 737-8s are scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2026.

The long-term vision extends far beyond these near-term additions. SunExpress holds orders for up to 90 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, including its first 737 MAX 10 models, with deliveries running through 2035. This positions the airline to potentially operate a 150-aircraft fleet by 2033.

Fleet Expansion Timeline:
- 2025: 85 aircraft (current operating fleet)
- Q1 2026: +4 Boeing 737-8 deliveries
- 2029-2035: Up to 90 additional MAX aircraft (orders)
- 2033: Target fleet size of 150 aircraft

Aircraft Configuration:
- Boeing 737-800: 189 seats
- Boeing 737 MAX 8: 189 seats  
- Boeing 737 MAX 10: 230 seats (future)

Network Strategy: UK and Ireland Drive Growth

SunExpress has identified the UK and Ireland markets as critical growth engines. The airline reported passenger traffic up over 20% from these markets during summer 2025, carrying over 1.5 million passengers.

For summer 2026, the carrier plans to offer 2.1 million seats from the UK and Ireland, representing a 10% increase over 2025. This expansion includes new services from East Midlands Airport, adding to operations from 11 UK airports.

The airline now operates the largest number of flights from the UK to Antalya and Izmir, cementing its position as the dominant leisure carrier on these routes.

Strategic Partnerships Expand Competitive Reach

The codeshare agreement with Eurowings, launched in July 2025, represents a significant strategic development. This partnership connects SunExpress’s Turkey-focused network with Eurowings’ broader European operations, enabling seamless connections for passengers.

The timing proves advantageous. SunExpress holds a dominant position in the Germany-Turkey corridor, accounting for 53% of seats in August 2025. This partnership essentially leverages the complementary strengths of both Lufthansa Group carriers while maintaining operational independence.

Beyond Germany, SunExpress added routes targeting the Middle East and North Africa. The airline opened 10 routes in 2024 in these regions and planned six additional routes in 2025, diversifying beyond its traditional European base.

Ownership Structure Remains Stable

Speculation emerged in November 2025 regarding potential ownership changes, with reports suggesting Turkish Airlines might seek full control. However, Turkish Airlines officially denied these rumors, reaffirming the successful 50-50 joint venture structure with Lufthansa.

Industry analysts expect this joint venture partnership to endure at least through the 2026 summer season. The arrangement provides strategic benefits to both parent companies while allowing SunExpress operational autonomy.

Market Context: Turkey Tourism Momentum

SunExpress benefits from broader Turkish tourism trends. Turkey welcomed 58.48 million visitors in the first eleven months of 2025. Approximately 62% of tourism operators expect visitor numbers to surpass 2025 levels in 2026, projecting increases between 5% and 10%.

The airline’s home base of Antalya remains Turkey’s primary leisure destination, while the carrier has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on growing demand for Bodrum, Dalaman, and Izmir as well. This geographic diversification reduces dependence on any single destination.

Istanbul Airport’s position as the most connected airport globally in 2025 reinforces Turkey’s aviation infrastructure strength, creating favorable conditions for carriers focused on Turkish destinations.

Operational Challenges and Mitigation Strategies

Despite strong performance, SunExpress faces industry-wide challenges. Rising airport fees and compensation payments could pressure margins in 2025, according to industry analysis. The airline addresses this through efficiency improvements and the fuel savings provided by newer Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

Boeing delivery delays have impacted fleet expansion timelines. The airline had originally planned for more aggressive fleet growth but adapted its capacity deployment to match actual aircraft availability. Management demonstrated flexibility by adjusting route expansion to align with available aircraft.

Crew training represents another investment priority. SunExpress announced initiatives to address pilot and cabin crew requirements as the fleet expands, recognizing that aircraft deliveries must be matched with adequately trained personnel.

My Final Thoughts

SunExpress has positioned itself as the dominant leisure carrier connecting Europe and Turkey, supported by financial performance that demonstrates both profitability and operational efficiency. The €2.2 billion revenue achievement in 2024, combined with an 85% load factor and expanding route network, validates the airline’s strategy.

The fleet modernization program provides capacity for sustained growth through the next decade. With four Boeing 737-8s arriving in Q1 2026 and up to 90 additional MAX aircraft on order through 2035, the infrastructure exists to support ambitious expansion plans targeting a 150-aircraft fleet by 2033.

The UK and Ireland market expansion, combined with the Eurowings codeshare partnership, diversifies revenue sources while reinforcing strength in core markets. SunExpress benefits from favorable tourism trends as Turkey continues attracting record visitor numbers, with industry projections indicating 5-10% growth in 2026.

Key risks include Boeing delivery schedules, rising operational costs, and potential economic headwinds affecting discretionary travel spending.

However, the airline’s strong load factors, profitability, and strategic positioning suggest it has the operational foundation to navigate these challenges while executing its growth strategy through 2026 and beyond.