Welcome to AviationOutlook: The aviation newsletter built exclusively for decision-makers.
Read by the people who run this industry. Become a paying member and gain full access now.
As a paid member, you get access to:
200+ Reports - All major airlines + aerospace & defense companies (updated regularly).
Deep-dive analysis & insights.
Industry outlook reports.
Recommended:
Check Out All Reports
Executive Summary
Airbus delivered 72 aircraft in September and holds 547 for the year, so its target of about 870 requires 323 deliveries in Q4, a pace near 108 per month.
Boeing delivered 57 jets in September (475 year to date, up 8%) and booked 165 gross orders, led by 100 737-8s for Turkish Airlines.
SPEEA members ratified four-year contracts on October 1, which removes a strike risk while the 737 MAX 10 and 777-9 certifications stay open.
Boeing won the Navy’s F/A-XX program (more than $20 billion), Raytheon booked up to $6.3 billion for SM-3 IB interceptors, and Airbus flew the U740 Valkyrie in Europe.
Joby faces a $116.9 million verdict, the FAA wants repeatable eVTOL operations, and the Part 108 drone rule already passed 90 days sitting at the White House review office.
Starship Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28, Flight 15 has no confirmed date, and New Glenn and Vulcan remain sidelined.
Are you a part of a team?
Equip your whole team with industry intelligence. Consider “Group” plan.
Here’s what you get in this analysis report:
1. Commercial Aircraft Production and Deliveries
1.1 Boeing’s September Scorecard
1.2 Airbus Output and the 323-Jet Fourth Quarter
1.3 Order Intake, Backlogs and Book-to-Bill
1.4 Embraer’s Record Third Quarter and the Fourth-Quarter Test
1.5 Scenario Model: Where 2026 Deliveries Land
2. Boeing: Labor, Certification and Program Risk
2.1 The Engineers’ Contract Removes a Strike Risk
2.2 737 MAX 10 Certification Back on Track
2.3 Rate 47 and the Road to Rate 52
2.4 777X: The 2027 Window Holds
2.5 Defense Context: F/A-XX and Engineering Capacity
3. Demand, Fuel and Fleet Economics for Airline Customers
3.1 Traffic: August Data Shows a Split Market
3.2 Jet Fuel and Capacity Discipline
3.3 Fleet Forecast and the Supply Gap
3.4 Lessors and Slot Value
4. Engines, Supply Chain and MRO
4.1 The Engine Bottleneck
4.2 Castings, Forgings and Next-Generation Engine Bets
4.3 MRO: Overhaul Demand, Modifications and Parts Substitution
4.4 Defense Engine Support: GE, Shield AI and Poland’s WZL-2
4.5 Earnings Calendar and What Each Report Can Confirm
4.6 What Rate Changes Mean for Suppliers
5. Defense Aerospace
5.1 Fiscal 2027 Opens on a Stopgap
5.2 Solid Rocket Motors: Lockheed Martin and Avio
5.3 Collaborative Combat Aircraft in Europe: The Valkyrie Flight
5.4 Italy’s Astore Levante and the European Drone Industrial Base
5.5 The Shared Constraint Across Defense and Space
6. Space Launch
6.1 Starship After Flight 14
6.2 The Heavy-Lift Gap: Vulcan and New Glenn
6.3 Neutron Moves to 2027
6.4 Artemis Dependencies in 2027 and 2028
6.5 Launch Scenario Model for the Next 90 Days
7. eVTOL and Advanced Air Mobility
7.1 Certification Status
7.2 Consolidation and Litigation
7.3 International Demand Signals
7.4 Policy Support in Washington
8. Drones and Uncrewed Systems
8.1 Part 108 at the White House
8.2 The Cost of Onshoring
8.3 Autonomy Partnerships and Airspace Automation
9. Stakeholder Playbook
9.1 Aircraft Manufacturers and Tier-1 Suppliers
9.2 Engine Makers
9.3 MROs and Lessors
9.4 Defense Primes and Munitions Suppliers
9.5 Launch and Space Operators
9.6 eVTOL and Drone Developers
10. Risk Register and Calendar
My Final Thoughts
Official Sources & Data
1. Commercial Aircraft Production and Deliveries
1.1 Boeing’s September Scorecard
Boeing delivered 57 aircraft in September, compared with 51 in August and 55 in September 2025. The mix included 43 737 MAX jets, eight 787 Dreamliners, two 777 freighters and four 767s.
Three of the four 767s went to Boeing’s defense unit for completion as KC-46 tankers. That detail matters for revenue timing, because tanker-bound airframes follow a different acceptance path than airline deliveries.
Third-quarter deliveries totaled 161 aircraft, narrowly above the 160 recorded in the third quarter of 2025. The year-to-date mix is 367 aircraft from the 737 family, 62 Dreamliners, 26 767s and 20 777s.
BOEING DELIVERIES, SEPTEMBER 2026
September total: 57 (August 51, September 2025: 55)
737 MAX: 43
787: 8
777 freighter: 2
767: 4 (3 for KC-46 completion)
Third quarter: 161
Year to date: 475 (up 8%)
The 737 supplied 75% of the September total and 77% of the year-to-date total.
Boeing’s 2026 performance is therefore a single-aisle story, and any slip in 737 output moves the whole company figure.
The 475 deliveries to date equal 79% of the 600 aircraft delivered in all of 2025. Any fourth quarter