COMAC - Company Analysis and Outlook Report (2026)

The state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) stands at a defining moment.

With over 1,000 orders for its flagship C919 narrowbody jet and an expanding product portfolio, the Shanghai-based manufacturer is reshaping the global aviation landscape.

Yet behind these impressive order numbers lies a more complex reality of supply chain constraints, certification hurdles, and the immense challenge of competing against the established Airbus-Boeing duopoly.

As 2026 begins, COMAC’s journey offers crucial insights for aviation professionals tracking the emergence of a potential third force in commercial aircraft manufacturing.

Table of Contents

• Production Reality Check: Scaling Challenges Emerg …

• The C919: Domestic Success with International Obst …

• The C909: Regional Jet Making International Inroad …

• The C929 Widebody: Long-Term Strategic Play

• Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Mitigation Strate …

• Market Position: Breaking the Duopoly

• My Final Thoughts

Production Reality Check: Scaling Challenges Emerge

COMAC’s production ambitions have collided with operational realities. The company initially targeted delivering 30 C919 aircraft in 2025, later revising this to 75 units. However, actual deliveries tell a different story.

COMAC managed only 25 deliveries in 2025, falling significantly short of its revised target. Supply chain bottlenecks affecting virtually all key components have hampered production capacity.

Engine shortages represent the most critical constraint. The C919 relies on CFM International’s LEAP-1C engines, which contain U.S.-made core modules. While Washington lifted export license suspensions in July 2025, this temporary relief only provides months of buffer, not years of security.

Current Production Status:

COMAC’s struggle to scale production reflects challenges that took Boeing and Airbus decades to overcome. Complex aerospace supply chains, quality control at volume, and workforce training all require sustained investment and operational maturity.

The C919: Domestic Success with International Obstacles

Since entering commercial service with China Eastern Airlines in May 2023, the C919 has demonstrated steady operational improvement. The aircraft currently achieves 5.2 flight hours per day, compared to the industry average of 7 hours for narrowbody jets.

China’s three largest state-owned carriers have become the backbone of C919 operations:

• China Southern Airlines: 40 COMAC aircraft

• Air China: 40 COMAC aircraft

• China Eastern Airlines: 38 COMAC aircraft (including 11 C919s)

Domestically, the C919 is gaining traction. Industry projections indicate COMAC will capture approximately 65% of new narrowbody deliveries to Chinese operators by 2030.

However, this still represents only 7% of China’s total in-service narrowbody fleet when existing Airbus and Boeing aircraft are included.

The certification barrier remains formidable. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) confirmed in April 2025 that C919 validation will require three to six years from the point of technical familiarization. This places EASA certification no earlier than 2028, effectively confining the aircraft to domestic and select Asian routes until then.

Neither EASA nor the FAA has granted type certification to any COMAC aircraft, limiting international market access significantly.

The C909: Regional Jet Making International Inroads

Originally designated the ARJ21, the C909 regional jet represents COMAC’s most mature product. First delivered to Chengdu Airlines in 2015, the aircraft has steadily expanded its operational footprint.

The C909 achieved a significant milestone by becoming COMAC’s first exported aircraft when Indonesia’s TransNusa took delivery in late 2022. The airline launched international scheduled service in November 2024, connecting Manado, Indonesia with Guangzhou, China.

Additional international operators now include:

• Lao Airlines (operational since March 2025)

• VietJet Air (two aircraft via SPDB Leasing)

The C909’s operational utilization has improved from less than one hour per day in 2018 to approximately 4 hours daily in 2025, demonstrating increasing reliability and route integration.

The C929 Widebody: Long-Term Strategic Play

COMAC’s most ambitious program, the C929 widebody, remains in detailed design phase. This twin-aisle aircraft targets 280-400 passengers with a 12,000-kilometer range, directly competing with Boeing’s 787 and Airbus’ A330neo.

Development progress includes:

• Detailed design stage confirmed by COMAC officials in March 2024

• Partnership agreements signed with Safran and Crane Aerospace for critical systems

• Entry into service targeted for early 2030s

The C929 program faces unique challenges. Originally developed as a joint venture with Russia (then called CR929), the partnership restructured following geopolitical tensions. COMAC now leads development independently.

Reports suggest the aircraft won’t achieve first commercial flight until 2035. Air China has reportedly placed orders, becoming the program’s launch customer.

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Mitigation Strategies

COMAC’s dependence on Western suppliers represents both a capability gap and geopolitical vulnerability. Critical components include:

Engine Dependencies:

• C919: CFM International LEAP-1C (U.S./French joint venture)

• C909: General Electric CF34-10A

• Domestic alternative: CJ-1000A (still in flight testing, years from production readiness)

Avionics and Systems:
Multiple suppliers from the United States and Europe provide flight control systems, avionics, and interior components.

The manufacturer has responded through several strategies:

1. Component stockpiling to buffer against export disruptions

2. Domestic engine development via the CJ-1000A program

3. Strategic partnerships to secure long-term supply commitments

4. Government capital injection of substantial funds received in November 2025

These mitigation efforts provide near-term stability but don’t eliminate fundamental dependencies. Developing indigenous alternatives that match Western performance and reliability standards will require sustained multi-year effort.

Market Position: Breaking the Duopoly

Globally, COMAC remains a minor player. Industry analysis projects the manufacturer will hold approximately 2% of the worldwide commercial aircraft fleet by 2030.

However, this seemingly modest figure represents a significant breach in the Airbus-Boeing duopoly that has dominated commercial aviation for decades.

Competitive Positioning:

Narrowbody Market (2030 Projection):
├── Airbus A320 family: ~47% global market share
├── Boeing 737 family: ~45% global market share
└── COMAC C919: ~2% global market share
    └── China domestic: ~7% of in-service fleet

Within China, COMAC’s impact is more substantial. The manufacturer benefits from:

• Strong government support and procurement preferences

• Captive market through state-owned airline relationships

• Infrastructure and financing advantages

• Domestic supply chain development initiatives

China Eastern is now collaborating with COMAC on a stretched variant, tentatively designated C919-800. This aircraft would seat over 200 passengers and target lucrative Asian regional routes.

My Final Thoughts

COMAC’s trajectory reflects a long-term strategic commitment rather than short-term commercial success. The company faces substantial operational challenges: production bottlenecks, supply chain vulnerabilities, and certification barriers that will take years to overcome.

Yet dismissing COMAC as irrelevant would be shortsighted.

China’s domestic aviation market alone provides sufficient scale to support the manufacturer’s development. With approximately 65% of domestic narrowbody deliveries projected by 2030, COMAC will gain operational experience, manufacturing maturity, and continuous improvement opportunities that money cannot buy.

The certification timeline creates a strategic inflection point. If COMAC secures EASA approval by 2028-2029 and brings the C929 widebody to market in the early 2030s, the company will possess a complete product family spanning regional, narrowbody, and widebody segments. This positions COMAC as a credible alternative supplier for airlines seeking leverage in negotiations with Airbus and Boeing.

For aviation industry professionals, COMAC represents a developing competitive force that requires monitoring rather than immediate strategic response. The manufacturer’s success will depend less on technological breakthroughs and more on operational execution, supply chain maturation, and sustained political support through inevitable setbacks.

The aerospace industry has demonstrated repeatedly that building successful commercial aircraft requires decades of commitment. COMAC appears prepared for this long journey.