COMAC - Company Analysis and Outlook Report (2026)

The state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) stands at a defining moment.

With over 1,000 orders for its flagship C919 narrowbody jet and an expanding product portfolio, the Shanghai-based manufacturer is reshaping the global aviation landscape.

Yet behind these impressive order numbers lies a more complex reality of supply chain constraints, certification hurdles, and the immense challenge of competing against the established Airbus-Boeing duopoly.

As 2026 begins, COMAC’s journey offers crucial insights for aviation professionals tracking the emergence of a potential third force in commercial aircraft manufacturing.

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COMAC’s production ambitions have collided with operational realities. The company initially targeted delivering 30 C919 aircraft in 2025, later revising this to 75 units. However, actual deliveries tell a different story.

COMAC managed only 25 deliveries in 2025, falling significantly short of its revised target. Supply chain bottlenecks affecting virtually all key components have hampered production capacity.

Engine shortages represent the most critical constraint. The C919 relies on CFM International’s LEAP-1C engines, which contain U.S.-made core modules. While Washington lifted export license suspensions in July 2025, this temporary relief only provides months of buffer, not years of security.

Current Production Status:

COMAC’s struggle to scale production reflects challenges that took Boeing and Airbus decades to overcome. Complex aerospace supply chains, quality control at volume, and workforce training all require sustained investment and operational maturity.

Since entering commercial service with China Eastern Airlines in May 2023, the C919 has demonstrated steady operational improvement. The aircraft currently achieves 5.2 flight hours per day, compared to the industry average of 7 hours for narrowbody jets.

China’s three largest state-owned carriers have become the backbone of C919 operations:

Domestically, the C919 is gaining traction. Industry projections indicate COMAC will capture approximately 65% of new narrowbody deliveries to Chinese operators by 2030.

However, this still represents only 7% of China’s total in-service narrowbody fleet when existing Airbus and Boeing aircraft are included.

The certification barrier remains formidable. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) confirmed in April 2025 that C919 validation will require three to six years from the point of technical familiarization. This places EASA certification no earlier than 2028, effectively confining the aircraft to domestic and select Asian routes until then.

Neither EASA nor the FAA has granted type certification to any COMAC aircraft, limiting international market access significantly.

Originally designated the ARJ21, the C909 regional jet represents COMAC’s most mature product. First delivered to Chengdu Airlines in 2015, the aircraft has steadily expanded its operational footprint.

The C909 achieved a significant milestone by becoming COMAC’s first exported aircraft when Indonesia’s TransNusa took delivery in late 2022. The airline launched international scheduled service in November 2024, connecting Manado, Indonesia with Guangzhou, China.

Additional international operators now include:

The C909’s operational utilization has improved from less than one hour per day in 2018 to approximately 4 hours daily in 2025, demonstrating increasing reliability and route integration.

COMAC’s most ambitious program, the C929 widebody, remains in detailed design phase. This twin-aisle aircraft targets 280-400 passengers with a 12,000-kilometer range, directly competing with Boeing’s 787 and Airbus’ A330neo.

Development progress includes:

The C929 program faces unique challenges. Originally developed as a joint venture with Russia (then called CR929), the partnership restructured following geopolitical tensions. COMAC now leads development independently.

Reports suggest the aircraft won’t achieve first commercial flight until 2035. Air China has reportedly placed orders, becoming the program’s launch customer.